Apple’s widely rumored first foldable iPhone could capture about 25% of global foldable smartphone shipments in its first year, according to Counterpoint Research. The forecast equates to slightly more than 6 million devices shipped in roughly three and a half months of availability, despite reports pointing to possible production constraints and limited initial supply.
The research firm forecasts more than 24 million foldable smartphones will ship globally in 2026, up from approximately 19.6 million in 2025. Cumulative foldable shipments since the original Samsung Galaxy Fold arrived in 2019 are expected to pass 100 million units by the end of 2026.
That projected Apple share would place the company second among foldable-phone makers, ahead of Huawei. Huawei’s share is expected to fall from about 30% in 2025 to 22% in 2026, while Samsung is forecast to remain the market leader with a 38% share, down modestly from 40% a year earlier.
Counterpoint sees a stronger acceleration in 2027, when foldable shipments could exceed 33 million units, a year-over-year increase of around 37%. Apple could reach a roughly 40% share that year, although the report does not explicitly project it to overtake Samsung.
The forecast depends heavily on the launch timing, production scale and consumer response to Apple’s first foldable. The device is still widely referred to in reports as the iPhone Ultra, but neither that name nor its specifications have been confirmed by Apple. Rumors have also suggested that a top configuration could cost more than $3,000, a price that would put the first-generation device at the high end even for the foldable segment.
